Blackjack Strategy

The Quick Reference

A handful of rules cover most decisions. Internalize these and you'll already be ahead of the average player.

Reading the Game

The dealer's upcard is the single most important piece of information on the table. It tells you what kind of hand the dealer is likely to finish with, which dictates everything about your play.

When the dealer shows 2–6, they're in a weak position. These cards force the dealer to draw, and a draw against a weak start busts often. Your job is to not bust first. Stand on borderline totals (12–16) and let the dealer take the risk.

When the dealer shows 7 or higher, they're likely to make a strong total. A 17 is a real threat, and a 19 or 20 is common. Marginal hands like 13–16 will lose if you stand, so you have to take the risk of hitting and try to improve.

When the dealer shows an Ace, they have the best possible upcard. Insurance is offered, but it's a losing bet over time — the implied odds don't match the true odds.

This logic is what produces the chart. Memorize the chart and you have the logic by reflex.

Betting Systems

Betting systems govern how much you wager from one hand to the next. None of them changes the underlying odds — they're frameworks for managing variance and bankroll, not edges over the house.

Bankroll Management

A bankroll is the money you've decided in advance you can lose. Set it before you sit down, not while you're playing.

A common heuristic is to size your base bet at 1–2% of your session bankroll — enough room to absorb normal variance without going broke on a bad run. A $500 bankroll suggests a $5–$10 base bet, not $50.

Decide a stop-loss and a stop-win before the first hand. Walking away from a winning session is harder than walking away from a losing one; both require the same discipline.

Common Pitfalls

A Note on Card Counting

Card counting is the practice of tracking the ratio of high to low cards remaining in the shoe to time bigger bets to richer decks. It's legal, it works in physical games with deep deck penetration, and it's worth roughly 0.5–1.5% in expectation when done well.

It does not apply at this table. The deck reshuffles every hand, so every deal is statistically identical and the count resets to zero before you can act on it. Basic strategy is the ceiling here, and basic strategy played perfectly is enough.

The Basic Strategy Chart

Find your hand's total down the left, the dealer's upcard across the top, and play the cell where they meet. The chart below is calibrated for the rules of this table: dealer stands on all 17s, double after split allowed, no surrender.

Cells assume double-after-split is permitted. Played correctly, basic strategy reduces the house edge to roughly half a percent over the long run.